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Goldman Sachs has raised the U.S. recession probability to 35%, citing concerns over President Trump's tariff policies, which could lead to inflation, trade retaliation, and slower economic growth. The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, but risks remain high for job markets and consumer spending. As uncertainty looms, individuals are advised to strengthen their financial foundations.
The S&P 500 experienced a decline on Monday following a target cut by Goldman Sachs. The analyst's revision raised concerns about an increased risk of recession, contributing to the market's downward movement.
UBS has maintained a "Neutral" rating for HSBC Holdings with a target price of 960 pence. Analyst Jason Napier noted the confirmation of capital increases by the Chinese Bank of Communications, in which HSBC has a 19% stake, and highlighted a moderate, capital-neutral impact for HSBC.
Goldman Sachs has once again lowered its S&P 500 target, citing concerns over the potential for increased tariffs and a slowdown in economic growth. The firm’s revised outlook reflects a cautious stance amid ongoing market volatility.
Goldman Sachs has raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession to 35% over the next year, citing increased tariffs and declining consumer sentiment. The bank predicts inflation will rise to 3.5% and unemployment to 3.5%, while projecting weak economic growth of just 0.2% for Q1 and 1% for the year, raising concerns of stagflation. Additionally, Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025 to stimulate growth, despite the risk of further inflation.
Japan is emerging from a prolonged deflationary period, with February's industrial production rising 2.5% y/y, driven by demand for manufactured goods ahead of new US tariffs. However, uncertainties surrounding US trade policies are impacting global sentiment and expectations for the Bank of Japan's rate hikes, with a forecast suggesting USD/JPY may end the year lower at 145.
Goldman Sachs predicts that President Trump's tariffs will raise US inflation and unemployment, with a recession probability now at 30%. The average US tariff rate is expected to increase by 15 percentage points, potentially reduced to 9 through negotiations. Economic growth is projected to stall, prompting anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.
Goldman Sachs has revised its S&P 500 target downward and increased the likelihood of a recession, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The firm’s shift reflects a more cautious stance amid changing market conditions.
Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, citing deteriorating consumer and business confidence, and the economic impact of higher tariffs. The bank anticipates three interest rate cuts this year, despite inflation concerns, as it shifts focus to labor market issues and growth stagnation. Meanwhile, Moody's Mark Zandi has increased recession odds to 40%, suggesting a potential "recession by design" due to current policies.
Goldman Sachs has revised its inflation outlook, predicting the core PCE index will rise to 3.5% this year, and anticipates three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the latter half of 2024. This forecast could positively impact the crypto market, as historically, rate cuts have boosted risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Currently, Bitcoin is down 1.81% to $81,985, with major tokens like XRP and Cardano's ADA experiencing losses exceeding 7%.
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goldman sachs raises recession odds to 35 amid tariff concerns and inflation
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